When the doors open for NFL free agency at noon Monday, much will be obvious about the Dolphins’ mission:
They need to find a starting receiver from a deep and talented class.
They need to either re-sign center Ted Karras or find a replacement.
They need to add at least one defensive back who can play special teams.
They need cheap depth at inside linebacker behind Benardrick McKinney (who was acquired from Houston for Shaq Lawson on Sunday) and Jerome Baker.
They need another starting-caliber running back, through free agency or the draft.
And most importantly, they need to add a starting outside linebacker who can rush the quarterback and hold up against the run, and another edge player who also can be projected for significant playing time.
But this issue requires more thought:
Should the Dolphins spend on three good front seven players who will get pretty good money but won’t break the bank — two outside linebackers and a tackle/end?
Or should they spend on a very pricey pass rusher and then add low-budget depth at outside linebacker and defensive tackle — an approach that might limit what they can spend at receiver.
That decision will come into focus in the next 48 hours, with legal free agent negotiations permitted to begin at noon on Monday.
Six spots in the Dolphins’ starting front seven are potentially filled with the potential starting defensive line of Emmanuel Ogbah, Raekwon Davis and Christian Wilkins, plus inside linebackers Jerome Baker and McKinney and edge player Andrew Van Ginkel.
The Dolphins obviously can’t go into the draft expecting to fill the edge rusher role. They need to sign at least two this week and another defensive tackle.
A look at who’s available among edge players and defensive tackles:
▪ Tampa edge defender Shaq Barrett: Has 19.5 and 8 sacks over the past two seasons. Pro Football Focus predicts he gets four years and $68 million from Tampa. This would be the splashiest option for Miami, but one that likely would require more cap space to be cleared.
▪ The Chargers’ Melvin Ingram: The three-time Pro Bowler (2017, ‘18, ‘19) held out to start last season, then played in only seven games and didn’t have a sack in an injury-plagued 2020 season. So teams might try to get him on the cheap.
Ingram assuredly will seek a contract based on his sack totals the previous three seasons (10.5, 7, 7). He’s 31, and the Dolphins traditionally have avoided 30 plus free agents under Brian Flores, excluding Ryan Fitzpatrick.
▪ Pittsburgh edge player Bud Dupree: The outside linebacker has 11.5 and 8 sacks the past two seasons, but he’s coming off a torn ACL in December.
And PFF notes “the key with Dupree is not to get caught up in the sack totals, particularly this season, as most of his sacks have come down to quarterbacks holding the ball for way too long. Dupree does play hard, and his high motor allows him to get in several hustle plays and clean-up sacks, but high-end pass-rushers should be winning one-on-one against offensive tackles far more often than Dupree has shown over his career.”
▪ Detroit’s Romeo Okwara. In line for a big pay day after a 10 sack season. He started only 9 of 16 appearances last season but has 19 sacks in three years for the Lions after producing one sack in his first 22 games with the Giants.
▪ Tennessee edge player Jadeveon Clowney: The Dolphins have pursued him before, so they clearly like the player. He’s strong against the run but had no sacks in eight games for Tennessee last season and just three in 13 games the previous year. He likely will be looking for far more money than that production warrants.
▪ Baltimore edge defender Yannick Ngakoue: Had eight sacks but just 23 tackles in 15 games in 2020 — nine for Baltimore, six for Minnesota. Wants to be paid like a great player, but is more good than great.
▪ Rams edge player Leonard Floyd: An interesting option but likely will be pricey after a career-high 10.5 sack season. Also a strong run defender. PFF predicts he could get three years and $40 million. This is a name that would make sense because he fills a need to upgrade both against the run and in the pass rusher. He has had success in a 3-4 (like Miami’s system) and a 4-3.
▪ Giants defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson: A strong run-defender who doesn’t offer much of a pass rush. He will command more than Miami is willing to pay for a tackle, which isn’t a top three priority this week.
▪ Arizona edge player Haason Reddick: After a disappointing first three seasons at linebacker, he thrived after the Cardinals moved him to an edge role last season, producing 12.5 sacks. PFF projects he will get $8.5 million next season. He’s a logical option for Miami.
▪ Baltimore edge player Matthew Judon: Had 7, 9.5 and 6 sacks the past three seasons but PFF said “there’s an element to Judon’s game that screams ‘buyer beware,’ as he has had high sack totals and good — not great — pass-rush grades over the past three seasons.”
PFF predicts he will get $16 million a year, and I don’t see the Dolphins doing that.
▪ Bengals edge player Carl Lawson: The 6-2, 265-pound Lawson, who has said he believes he might be cousins with the ex-Dolphins’ Lawson, had 36 tackles and 5.5 sacks. But his big quarterback pressure numbers (59 in 389 pass-rushing snaps) will warrant him a very big contract in free agency.
▪ Detroit defensive end Romeo Okwara: In line for a good contract after a breakout 10-sack season last year.
▪ Saints edge player Trey Hendrickson: The emerging defensive end erupted for 13.5 sacks last season after combining for 6.5 in his first three seasons.
▪ Patriots defensive tackle Adam Butler: Can play multiple spots on the defensive line, including nose tackle. Had 34 tackles and four sacks last season and the Dolphins have interest. Miami is more likely to be able to afford him if it signs a good but not break-the-back outside linebacker.
▪ Patriots defensive tackle Lawrence Guy: Has played for Brian Flores before and had 57 tackles and two tackles as a 16-game starter for the Patriots last season. Would be the ideal fit to split snaps with Raekwon Davis, but Guy could be inclined to find a place where he would be an automatic starter. Miami likes him and he’s worth monitoring.
▪ Denver defensive end/tackle Shelby Harris: PFF calls him one of the most underrated players in the league — a 290-pounder who can rush the quarterback (16 sacks in six years) and defend the run. But he’s not big enough to fill the nose tackle role backing up Davis.
▪ Former Seattle defensive end Carlos Dunlap: Released by Seattle this week, Dunlap had six sacks in 15 games (including 10 starts) for the Bengals and Seahawks last season. But he’s 31 and the Dolphins typically have looked younger in free agency during the Flores regime.
▪ Raiders edge player Tak McKinley: The former Falcons first rounder played in just four games last season, was cut in November (after requesting a trade), failed physicals with the Bengals and 49ers and then joined Las Vegas but didn’t play because of health. Has 17.5 sacks in four years but has missed too many tackles in the run game.
▪ Saints’ defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins: Solid run defender with 17.5 sacks in five seasons. But injury history is a concern and this position isn’t a priority.
▪ Tampa defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh: Still an above-average defensive tackle and could go year to year on contracts at this stage of his career. A return to Miami would be surprising.
▪ Tennessee defensive tackle Daquan Jones: Started 16 games last season, and the 322-pounder is a solid run defender who had 49 tackles last season. Can line up anywhere on the defensive line.
▪ Baltimore edge player Tyus Bowser: I could envision Dolphins interest because of his versatility; he’s athletic (former basketball player at Houston), can rush the quarterback (seven sacks over the past two seasons) or drop into coverage.
▪ New England edge player Deatrich Wise Jr.: The 275-pound defensive end has 14 sacks in four seasons. He’s on Miami’s radar.
▪ Baltimore end/tackle Derek Wolfe: Has 34.5 sacks in nine seasons and good run defender. Played well for Baltimore last season but isn’t going to break the bank at 30.
▪ Defensive end Justin Houston: Started 16 games for the Colts and had eight sacks last season. But he’s 31.
▪ Edge player Kerry Hyder: The defensive end/tackle had 8.5 sacks for 49ers last season but has missed too many tackles.
THE VALUE BASKET
This is where the Dolphins might find a player or two for its front seven. And keep in mind that some of the players in the previous category could end up in this value basket, too, because cap space around the league isn’t plentiful.
▪ Jets edge player Tarell Basham: Solid run defender who had 3.5 sacks in nine starts for the Jets last season. The 6-4, 266-pounder could be a rotational edge piece.
▪ Jacksonville defensive tackle Abry Jones: The Dolphins like him. He started 15 games for Jacksonville in 2019 (and had 31 tackles and two sacks) and started all five of his appearances last season but missed the final 2 1/2 months with an ankle injury.
▪ Redskins edge player Ryan Kerrigan: Had 5.5 sacks each of the past two seasons after producing 13 in 2018. He became a reserve last season (one start) and is 32.
▪ Rams edge player Samson Ebukam: Had 20 quarterback pressures and 4.5 sacks last season in 16 games, including 14 starts. The former fourth-rounder is only 25.
▪ Baltimore’s Pernell McPhee: Steady player who had 34 tackles and three sacks in 13 starts for the Ravens last season. But he’s 32 and knees are a concern.
▪ Bills end/outside linebacker Trent Murphy: The 30-year-old had two sacks in 10 games and nine starts last season.
▪ Tampa Bay defensive tackle Rakeem-Nunez Roche: Played well in 11 starts after replacing the injured Vita Vea as Tampa’s nose tackle. Tampa is up against the cap, so there’s an opportunity to seize a competent tackle with 27 starts in six years.
▪ Bengals defensive tackle Christian Covington: Had 39 tackles in 14 starts for the Bengals last season and would be a serviceable player behind Raekwon Davis. Only 27 years old.
▪ 49ers defensive tackle D.J. Jones: Has started 25 games and has five sacks over the past two seasons but also has a history of injuries. Another Godchaux replacement possibility if he doesn’t get the money he’s seeking. (Jones tweeted “know your worth” earlier this offseason.)
▪ Las Vegas defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins: Had 48 tackles in 16 starts for Las Vegas and could fill the backup nose tackle role. Likely won’t be too costly.
▪ Ravens defensive tackle Justin Ellis: Had 17 tackles in 13 games and three starts for Baltimore and would be a cheap No. 4 tackle option.
▪ Edge player Aldon Smith: Returned to the league after a five-year suspension and was solid for Dallas, producing five sacks in 10 games.
▪ Edge player Olivier Vernon: The former Dolphins and Canes standout tore his Achilles’ tendon Jan. 4 in a practice before the Browns’ playoff opener. He could miss much of the season but a team could take a chance on a low-money deal, hoping he can give them something in the final couple months of 2021.
▪ Pittsburgh defensive tackle Tyson Alualu: The 304-pounder had 38 tackles and two sacks for the Steelers last season and would be a decent backup to Davis at nose tackle. But at 33, he’s older than what the Dolphins seem to prefer in free agency.
▪ Jets defensive end Jordan Jenkins: The 6-3, 259-pounder had 32 tackles and two sacks in 12 starts for the Jets last season. Average player at best but only 26 and could come cheaply.
▪ Defensive tackle Jurrell Casey: Solid player who was released by the Broncos last week. Missed 13 games last season with a biceps injury.
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