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On Saturday at 1:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks and KGO 810 AM, Cal men’s basketball will close out the regular season at home against the Ducks of Oregon. Cal comes in at 8-18 overall and 3-16 in the Pac-12 while Oregon comes in at 15-5 overall and 10-4 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Thursday, Cal suffered a heart breaking loss to Oregon State at home by a final score of 59-57.
RECAP: Cal MBB fumbles away home loss to Oregon State
Previous meeting with Oregon: Earlier this season in Eugene, Cal fell to then #21 Oregon by a final score of 82-69. Cal played Oregon pretty tough for much of the game, but faded late.
RECAP: Cal MBB runs out of gas at #21 Oregon
On Oregon: The Ducks are coming off a 71-68 win on The Farm over Stanford and have won 6 of their last 7 games. All things considered, they’re playing good basketball and positioning themselves well for the NCAA tournament.
The Ducks are led by senior guard Chris Duarte (17.2 points & 4.8 rebounds) and redshirt senior forward Eugene Omoruyi (16.6 points & 5.5 rebounds). Both guys are playing fantastic and are a major reason for why the Ducks are having the success that they are having.
As a team, the Ducks average 73.2 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field, 35.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 70.2% shooting from the foul line. They also average a +1.4 rebound margin, 13.3 assists, 7.6 steals, 4.0 blocks, and 12.0 turnovers. Their opponents average 66.6 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field, 32.8% shooting from 3-point range, and 77.1% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: If Cal is to win this game, the first thing they have to do is do a better job on the glass. Especially in key situations. Oregon State grabbed 5 offensive rebounds on Thursday, many of which were in critical moments. When the chips are down and they need a rebound, Cal has to find a way to come up with the ball. A lot of this comes down to fundamentals and getting in the right position. Boxing out, etc.
Secondly, Cal needs to have better shot selection. Cal shot 2-17 from 3-point range on Thursday and in general, their shot selection wasn’t that good. Too often, we see Cal chuck up a shot like George Costanza, hoping and praying that it will go in. Cal needs to do a much better job of creating open, good looks and having the patience to wait for those looks to come.
Third, Matt Bradley needs to be the best player of the game. If Matt Bradley walks out as the best player of the game, that will give Cal a puncher’s chance at winning this game. If instead, Duarte, Omoruyi, or someone else on the Ducks has the best performance, then we’re likely looking at an Oregon win.
Finally, Cal has to do a better job at the beginning and end of halves. Cal got off to a great start in the first half against Oregon State, but at the end of the first half, beginning of the second half, and end of the second half, it was a disaster. They did not play well. They went cold on offense, turned the ball over, and just played sloppy. If Cal can play better in those key stretches, that’ll go along ways towards beating the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon is coming in hot. Cal is not. It’s possible the Bears have one more surprise up their sleeve like they did against Colorado, but I don’t think the Ducks will fall asleep at the wheel like the Buffaloes did. The Ducks know they must win this game and that a loss to Cal would hurt their NCAA tournament seeding. I got the Ducks winning 78-70.
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