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With the NBA trade deadline nearing on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, there is no shortage of possibilities for both buyers and sellers.
Are teams emboldened by injuries to Los Angeles Lakers All-Stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and make moves to improve their chances of wining a title? Do the Phoenix Suns, who are just two games behind the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference, think they’re a role player away from making a deep playoff run? Do the Milwaukee Bucks believe they can stand pat and still overtake the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets in the Eastern Conference? Do the Indiana Pacers, who fired coach Nate McMillan after being swept in the first round last season, have what it takes to get into the postseason?
TRADE TRACKER: Who is moving where before Thursday’s NBA trade deadline?
We take a look at those questions and more with a panel of NBA experts. USA Today’s Matt Eppers moderated a roundtable with USA Today basketball writers Jeff Zillgitt and Mark Medina, J. Michael Falgoust of the Indianapolis Star, Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic.
Matt Eppers: Jeff, could you give us a quick overview of where things stand roughly 48 hours before the deadline? It’s been said repeatedly there could be more buyers than sellers. Where does that leave things?
Jeff Zillgitt: Starting to heat up with more conversations and frameworks of potential deals, which is an increased pace from last week when most teams were trying to figure out which way they wanted to go at the trade deadline. In talking to execs, they expressed some trepidation about making judgments based on a really weird season. Teams like Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando, Minnesota and Houston appear willing to sell, Teams like Los Angeles Clippers, Boston, Denver, Miami and Milwaukee are buyers — seeing perhaps seeing an avenue to a championship or at least a deep playoff run.
Jim Owczarski: Milwaukee is in an interesting spot there, Jeff, as moving D.J. Augustin’s contract to Houston and Torrey Craig to Phoenix for cash gives them a chance to entertain the buyout market earlier than they would have prior to those deals. They have two open roster spots. A trade seems tougher to do without real draft assets, but general manager Jon Horst continually seems to pull rabbits out of his hat. The Bucks, like most contenders, would love to add another three-point shooter and perimeter defender. If that guy can also serve as a backup point guard, all the better.
Eppers: How is that trepidation impacting teams’ approach to trade talks? Is there any sense it will temper the market as a whole as more teams potentially decide to just stand pat?
Mark Medina: I wouldn’t expect any franchise-changing trades, such as James Harden going from Houston to Brooklyn. As Jeff noted, this is an unprecedented season to evaluate how good or bad of a team is. But you also wonder will this play-in tournament affect team behavior. By casting that wide net of potential playoff teams, they appear more inclined to see how their chances land as opposed toward punting on the season.
J. Michael Falgoust: The Pacers are in the middle here. They’re listening but not much is happening. They’re not trading Malcolm Brogdon, I was just told definitively by a league source, though his name is out there. When a team underperforms, that chatter is inevitable. I think the play-in part impacts the Pacers big-time because they’re expecting T.J. Warren back and think his addition will give them a better chance to emerge from that despite their struggles now. And this is a franchise hellbent on making the postseason every year, so deconstructing and losing isn’t really an option. Though one could reasonably argue, if there’s a year to do it without a full complement of fans at arenas this might be it.
Zillgitt: That’s a good point from Mark on the play-in game scenario. You have to remember that front-office execs answer to ownership. For some teams, making the playoffs, even if it’s a first-round loss, is the objective. See J’s answer on the Pacers.
Duane Rankin: There’s hardly much practice time in an NBA season. This season is even less. So trading for a complementary piece who can blend in makes more sense than going big, but then you have to find that player who fits and consider what you’d have to give up in in return to get him.
Medina: I think the most impactful move will be on whichever team LaMarcus Aldridge or Andre Drummond land. Despite the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers’ hopes, I’m skeptical they can trade those guys because of their respective salaries and what it would take for buyers to give up in return. So I expect them in the buyout market. I could see the Lakers and the Celtics to be the most aggressive. They’re both in the championship contending mix, but they have a lot of roster needs to fill.
Falgoust: For me the Celtics are a fence team. Their roster has blue chip talent but I’m not sure it works. If they strike big at the deadline, I still think they’d be in a better place had they executed the sign-and-trade for Hayward and received Myles Turner, Doug McDermott and a first-round pick. I don’t see them as a contender anymore, but they’re not far away from it.
Zillgitt: Since we’re on the Celtics, yes, they have interest in Orlando’s Aaron Gordon, and the Magic are finally starting to generate offers from Gordon that will allow them to part ways without getting fleeced in a deal. That previously hasn’t been the case. Hearing from those in the know (and confirming reports), the Celtics have made the best offer for Gordon but Denver and Houston have shown interest, too. Whatever you think about the Celtics, they’re just middle of the road right now in the East and need help to move up.
Rankin: In looking at the Suns specifically, they filled their final roster spot by acquiring Torrey Craig in a trade, but didn’t have to give up a player to get him. Head coach Monty Williams and GM James Jones talk daily. Jones has made several moves since becoming the GM with Chris Paul being the biggest one. He’s constantly thinking how to improve the team and while Williams loves this team as they’re second in the West, they’ve also been talking about competing for a title. So they aren’t as talented as say a healthy Lakers team, the Clippers, Nets or healthy 76ers. With this being such a weird season as Jeff said, teams that have great chemistry are likely pondering do they shake that up by making a move. Phoenix is one of those teams. They have guys who are pros and not causing issues because they’re not playing. Winning helps and depth is one of Phoenix’s strengths. If they were to lose a player for a long period of time due to injury or be under health and safety protocols, they are confident in the depth. Talent usually wins out in the playoffs, but Phoenix has two All-Star closers in Devin Booker and Chris Paul, shooters, Deandre Ayton inside and great team chemistry. That has proven to win over more talented teams in the past.
Zillgitt: Should also add the Gordon seeks and has sought a fresh start. He’s had five coaches since Orlando drafted him and a couple of front-office turnovers.
Owczarski: To the larger point of contending teams looking to fit in role players, I think that’s why the Bucks were OK moving Augustin and D.J. Wilson to Houston and Craig to Phoenix. Craig wasn’t playing much, Wilson not at all and they determined Augustin wasn’t a fit as an off-ball option. They were role players. P.J. Tucker is a role player. They believe he will be a significant one in the playoffs, but Milwaukee has found a groove with its chemistry and a shortened rotation.
Falgoust: Orlando has had basically the same roster forever. They’ve sat on those pieces much too long. And it’s crazy because they’ve never been a threat even when they make the postseason. I’m a big fan of selling high early than having your hand forced late. Orlando has always had good pieces (and full of bigs in a league that trends smaller) that don’t quite fit.
Zillgitt: The Magic could get some value back in return for Nikola Vucevic if they went that route, too. Orlando also falls into that category of “teams whose owner wants to make the playoffs.”
Falgoust: Yes, I mean they had Vooch, Biyombo, Ibaka etc. And have kept Fournier, who’d have been a good trade chip to rebuild, like the future of the franchise depends on it. Nothing the Magic do make much sense in that regard. That gets back to your point, Jeff. A lot of front offices make moves (or don’t) based on ownership, but they take the bullets for it publicly.
Medina: On the Warriors front, I’ve been told that they’re more likely to stay pat with what they do than make any moves. They’ll listen to offers, particularly ones with Kelly Oubre. But they’re not going to make any moves that will just help them move up in the West standings. One, they’re optimistic they’ll make the playoffs or at least the play-in tournament. Two, they don’t want to compromise next year’s roster, which should have Steph Curry, Draymond Geen, James Wiseman and a healthy Klay Thompson. The tricky thing is, the Warriors know they will be better with Klay returning. But Klay himself admitted recently he’s not entirely sure how long it will take for him to be back to where he was before his ACL injury in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals.
Falgoust: If Warriors have a winning record this season and make the playoffs, that’s a successful season for them.
Medina: I agree with your point, Michael, about the Warriors and what constitutes a successful season this year. I don’t agree with the narrative that the Warriors’ front office is squandering Steph Curry’s prime year. Of course, they don’t like losing. But there hasn’t been any pivot point where the Warriors declined to pursue in making the roster better. After Kevin Durant left, they performed a sign-and-trade with Brooklyn for D’Angelo Russell and later flipped him mid-season to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins. They dealt Andre Iguodala to Memphis for a $17.5 million trade exception and later used that to get Kelly Oubre. They used the No. 2 pick on James Wiseman. It’s fair to praise or critiquing the drafting of Wiseman or how Steve Kerr has handled rotations. But the Warriors are being as aggressive as they can in giving Steph the best roster possible with the cards they have.
Falgoust: They’re squandering nothing. Well-run teams don’t tear up everything over knee-jerk reactions. Curry isn’t being wasted. I think this year will solidify how they’ll be back in the mix sooner than later.
Eppers: The ownership angle is one that makes me think of the Kings. They have some players that would be targets for contenders (Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield), but Vivek Ranedive has to be desperate to end the league’s longest playoff drought.
Zillgitt: Heck, even Marvin Bagley III is showing up in potential trades.
Falgoust: Glad you mention Barnes. In an ideal world, that would be the kind of player the Pacers have at the 4 instead of two actual 5s starting.
Zillgitt: J., any chance of the Pacers breaking up the two 5s in a trade, one or the other?
Falgoust: I didn’t think highly of Barnes based on his draft position for the first half of his career, but he’s gotten better at a lot of things and is a good defender. You need guys his size who defend wings, some bigger/stronger guys and shoot the 3. And he can go off the bounce and create. Those players are a premium. He’d be perfect for the Pacers with their issues trying to have Sabonis close out the likes of James Harden in space.
Turner isn’t going anywhere, Jeff. Not unless it’s such a no-nonsense deal they can’t refuse.
They gave up 140 to Milwaukee in regulation without him. He cleans up too much. I’ve said sense last season they should sell high on Sabonis. His stock would never be higher. But he’s a fan favorite, is a 2-time All-Star, etc. But that locker room is NOT good right now. At all.
Rankin: Oubre is craving to find a place to have a meaningful run of years. Not two or three. More like five or six. The Warriors are in a tough spot because Thompson is a huge cog, but who is to say he’s going to come back like the Thompson of old. You’d think he would, but there’s no guarantees in that. Then if he does get back, I’m sure Golden State is going to be extra careful with him.
Falgoust: The Pacers will have to make a decision on Aaron Holiday. He’s been displaced by T.J. McConnell. So if they don’t make a move right now by the deadline, they will by the draft. They have to.
Zillgitt: Holiday is a player who could be sought after by one of the contending teams looking for backcourt depth if larger deals don’t materialize.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA trade deadline 2021: Breaking down the contenders, pretenders
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