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The Guardian
MLB 2021 predictions: how do you stop a juggernaut like the LA Dodgers?
The World Series champions look set to repeat. Our writers run down the contenders and the best players to watch in the coming season The World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are the team to beat in MLB this season. Photograph: Kevin Jairaj/USA Today Sports One bold prediction … “Dog, if there were slightly larger bases, I would be all over MLB!”, said no young would-be baseball fan, ever, at any time. Yet that’s just one of a series of experiments set to take place in baseball’s minor leagues as MLB brass continue their neverending search for fans under 50. Expect an announcement scrapping the obsolete 90 feet between bases in time for the 2022 season: the distance was never really right anyway. DL Trevor Bauer won’t play out the season in Los Angeles. The 2020 Cy Young winner signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers and then immediately got into his usual trolling, this time adding throwing pitches with one-eye open (including one that hit a batter during spring training). If his production drops for some mysterious reason, don’t be surprised if the Dodgers look into trading him. HF The Rays’ Randy Arozarena will be an MVP candidate – and he’ll be the AL Rookie of the Year. (Yes, he’s still somehow a rookie.) After his borderline unthinkable performance in the postseason last fall, Arozarena will pick up where he left off, and opposing pitchers will still be no match for his swing. JN New York City will rule the baseball world this season. New York teams always receive extra attention from both the media and fans because, well, it’s New York, but the Yankees and Mets will be among the best and most exciting in 2021. TF I’m most excited by … San Diego Padres president of baseball operations AJ Preller’s seemingly endless wheeling and dealing brought even more blockbuster talent to San Diego this offseason. A refreshed rotation and a payroll up from 24th in 2019 to ninth in 2021 means a fascinating fight, finally, for the NL West divisional title. DL I’ve hit the point in my life where there aren’t many players around my age left in the league, so this season is about rooting for the veterans. This will likely be Albert Pujols’s swan song, Adam Wainwright is hoping for one more dominant year with the St Louis Cardinals while Miguel Cabrera will be aiming for home run number 500. HF Fernando Tatis Jr will help the Padres take on the Dodgers. Photograph: Mark J Rebilas/USA Today Sports Everything about the Padres. I hate that they’re becoming a contender at the exact moment the Dodgers have a chokehold on the division – and all of baseball – but that doesn’t mean I don’t daydream about San Diego running away with the division thanks to huge seasons from Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. JN A new era is upon us in Flushing. After years of complaining about the Wilpons’ ownership, Mets fans have had their prayers answered thanks to Steve Cohen buying the team and adding multiple talented players, most notably the newly minted Francisco Lindor. TF MVP winners In the National League, Manny Machado feels like he’s been around forever, yet he’s only 28: this year his bat matures to an MVP level. In the American League, I have a theory: Mike Trout didn’t want to play in 2020. He had his first child and was worn out. He hit .281, his worst batting average since his first full season in the bigs. Now that he’s got the dad thing down he’ll get back to bullying baseballs. DL In the AL, I’m going with something old, Mike Trout, who has been the best player in baseball for a long time. In the NL, let’s go with something new. Look for 22-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr to celebrates his 14-year, $340m contract with the San Diego Padres with a MVP season (and probably not his last). HF Mike Trout didn’t win in 2020, which means he’s due. There’s no safer pick, but in the National League, I’ll go out on a limb. Nolan Arenado is about to turn 30, he’s never finished better than third in MVP voting, and he’s facing the very real question of how much 82 games at Coors Field boosted his offensive stats. But he’ll help the Cardinals secure the NL Central and put up big numbers in the process. JN Shohei Ohtani is set for a big season in Los Angeles. Dominant pitching and home runs should carry Ohtani to AL MVP, if he remains healthy. Fernando Tatis Jr may not pitch, but he is certainly the most exciting player in baseball. An electric arsenal of plays will elevate Tatis to the best player in the National League. TF Cy Young winners Jacob deGrom somehow appears to be getting better. Photograph: Mary Holt/USA Today Sports Yu Darvish finally bounced back in 2020, finishing second in the NL Cy Young race while pitching in Wrigley Field. Now in San Diego, something more of a pitcher’s park, Darvish is more than capable of taking the trophy. The last time we saw Shane Bieber he was getting hammered by the Yankees in the AL wild card round. Such a stain has made it difficult to remember just how good he was in 2020: an ERA of 1.63, 122 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 77 innings. Bieber won’t be that good again, but he won’t need to be to earn back-to-back Cy Young wins. DL A New York sweep. In the AL, Gerrit Cole will rack up huge strikeout totals while benefitting from the Yankees offense behind him (which will help his case from the old-fashioned voters who still factor in pitcher wins). Meanwhile, the Mets’ Jacob deGrom will pitch his way towards his third NL Cy Young. HF If Jacob deGrom stays healthy, the NL Cy Young is his to lose. He keeps throwing harder every year, and though that’s bound to level off, he still has the most overpowering arm in the game. In the American League, Lucas Giolito’s changeup will keep flummoxing opponents. JN Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and proves it year after year. DeGrom has even improved his fastball to 100mph to cause hitters even more headaches. Shane Bieber may not be the best pitcher in baseball, but he may be the best pitcher in the AL. Bieber had a historic 2020 season and similar numbers will elevate him to another Cy Young. TF AL East Less Gerrit Cole, what’s so special about the Yankees starting pitching? Not a whole lot, and a rotation full of question marks in both performance and health brings forth just enough doubt. Instead, it’s a wide open three-team race with the Jays and Rays. I like the Toronto Blue Jays to take a significant step in a surprising spring to the top. DL I spent a lot of time trying to pick someone else but the Yankees, but they have the combination of pitching and offense to make them the beast of the division and maybe the league. I’m not happy about this either. HF The Yankees will win the division easily and make it to the World Series thanks in part to regression from the Rays. JN The AL East will be very competitive at the top due to big offseason moves by Toronto, and the Rays improving every year. However, the Yankees have too much fire power throughout their lineup and pitching rotation not to come out on top. TF AL Central In 1980, Tony La Russa managed Minnie Minoso, born 1925, for the Chicago White Sox. This season he will manage Luis Robert, born 1997, also for the Pale Hose. La Russa, now 76, has seen a lot of baseball. You won’t find (m)any(one) who likes the hire, but he wins wherever he goes. DL What would be a better sign of a return to normal than the Minnesota Twins impressing during the regular season and then getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs? HF Between Giolito, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Luis Robert, the White Sox have one of the most fun teams in baseball. If Tony La Russa can still manage, this team can make a run. JN The White Sox have put together one of the better rosters in baseball. They have one of the top 1-2-3 rotations and their lineup should be able to survive missing Eloy Jimenez due to injury. TF AL West Shohei Ohtani is a rare threat with both bat and ball. Photograph: Rick Scuteri/USA Today Sports If Shohei Ohtani pitches like an ace, and hits like a slugger, there’s a bona fide chance that the Los Angeles Angels can do more than compete in a weakened AL West. This will be good news for Mike Trout, who would lose the playoff piano that’s been on his back since his only postseason appearance, back in 2014. DL Houston Astros. It wouldn’t be the postseason without the sport’s biggest villains. I’ll give the Angels a wildcard slot and a beatable opponent in the Tampa Bay Rays just so we get to see Trout in at least an ALDS. HF The Astros just keep winning, even without knowing anyone else’s signs. That won’t change in 2021, even without George Springer. JN Oakland may have the best defense in the league this year. This, combined with MLB again changing the ball in an attempt to create fewer home runs, should play to the A’s strengths and allow them to overtake Houston as division champions. TF NL East How do you bet against the Atlanta Braves, who have occupied the top seat in the NL East for three straight seasons? You say that the Mets have a stacked lineup, something of an improved bullpen and a deeper rotation than last season. You note that Scherzer, Strasburg, Soto and Turner down in DC have a legitimate shot. And you point out that manager Don Mattingly has a full season to learn the names of his Marlins players. No matter. Braves win, again. DL Looking at this blindly, it feels like the New York Mets should be the favorite but, well, they are also the Mets. So, how about this compromise: the Mets win the division, the Braves go deeper into the playoffs as a wild card. HF The Braves have quietly won the NL East the past three seasons, and they came within a game of topping the Dodgers in the NLCS. They’re well-rounded and will be just as good in 2021. JN New York and Atlanta will battle for the division all year, but even with Carlos Carrasco out injured for the start of the season, the Mets simply have too much pitching. The additions of Francisco Lindor and Brian McCann will be enough to ensure New York City has two division winners this season. TF NL Central The St Louis Cardinals added Nolan Arenado but the Milwaukee Brewers are probably the most well rounded team in the NL Central. The rotation is also solid – it’s good enough in a so-so NL Central. DL The Cardinals, who could take advantage of a relatively weak division thanks to a rookie of the year campaign by outfielder Dylan Carlson. HF I said it earlier: Nolan Arenado will boost the Cardinals to the top of the Central, but they still won’t have what it takes for a long postseason run. JN The Chicago Cubs have more star power in their lineup than any other team in the NL Central and come into this season with a revamped pitching rotation. Even if the new rotation struggles, Chicago should have enough firepower to win a relatively weak division. TF NL West This is the King Kong v Godzilla of divisional races. The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off that elusive World Series title. The San Diego Padres added two huge pitching pieces to their stellar side while LA plussed a Cy Young winner in Trevor Bauer. A narrow edge goes to the incumbents in what should be a joy to watch. DL Unless they suffer a lot of injuries, the Dodgers are winning the division. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Padres end up with a record that would make them the winner in practically any other division, but have to settle for a wildcard slot. HF As much as I want to pick the Padres here, the division still belongs to the Dodgers, at least for now. They’ll take advantage of their deep stable of pitchers and the fact that Mookie Betts is locked up for years to edge San Diego. JN The Dodgers are still the best team in baseball and it’s hard to argue otherwise. Forget having the most wins in the division, LA should easily have the most wins in baseball before making another deep playoff run. TF AL wild cards Yankees, A’s. DL Angels, Rays. HF Twins, Rays. JN Twins, Rays. TF NL wild cards Mets, Padres. DL Padres, Braves. HF Mets, Padres. JN Padres, Braves. TF ALCS White Sox over A’s, 4-2. DL Yankees over Astros, 4-3. HF Yankees over White Sox, 4-3. JN White Sox over Yankees 4-2. TF NLCS Dodgers over Mets, 4-2. DL Dodgers over Braves, 4-2. HF Dodgers over Padres, 4-2. JN Dodgers over Mets 4-3. TF World Series It’s hard to see past another Dodgers celebration in October. Photograph: John G Mabanglo/EPA Dodgers over White Sox, 4-1. It’s a redux of the 1959 World Series with the Chicago White Sox facing the Los Angeles Dodgers. It also means Tony La Russa becomes the story and gets the last laugh by making the Fall Classic, even as the Dodgers take the series. DL Yankees over Dodgers, 4-3. If you replay this season 100 times you’re going to get this World Series matchup at least 51 times. Let me throw a curveball here and say that New York manage to pull off the upset in a rousing, seven-game series. HF Dodgers over Yankees, 4-2. After breaking their 32-year drought last fall, the Dodgers will repeat. They’re just … too good. And this New York-LA matchup won’t be a fun one, either. The Dodgers will win in six, and Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw will silence the Yankees’ bats. JN Dodgers over Yankees, 4-1. The Dodgers have depth across the board that no other team can match. Lastly, less physical and mental wear and tear due to last year’s shortened season should eliminate any worries of a World Series hangover. TF
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